Introduction
The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is a country with a complex history, where the meeting of different identities creates ongoing political, social and ethnic tensions. Despite its relative stability compared to neighboring countries, the conflict between the dominant Bedouin-Hashemite population and the Palestinians is a central factor in Jordanian politics and society. The integration of the Palestinians into the state remains problematic, despite their belonging to the same Arab-Muslim world, due to historical, social and political factors.
The History of Jordan and the Demographic Fabric
The Jordanian kingdom was founded in 1921 by Abdullah I of the Hashemite dynasty, who gained control over Transjordan as part of British agreements. The local population included Bedouin tribes that recognized the authority of the king. After the 1948 war and as a result of the Naksa (disaster) of 1967, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians found refuge in Jordan, and some of them received Jordanian citizenship. Today, it is estimated that between 50% and 70% of Jordan's population is of Palestinian origin, while the rest are Bedouins, or members of tribes identified with the Hashemite rule.
The Conflict between the Bedouins and the Palestinians
The tension between the populations is expressed in several areas:
Political Identity and Rule - The Jordanian establishment is based on the support of the Bedouin tribes, which are considered the backbone of the kingdom. The Palestinians, on the other hand, are excluded from key positions in the army and security forces, and their presence in government mechanisms is limited.
Economy and Society - The Palestinians have become more integrated into the private and business economy, especially in the fields of banking, commerce and industry, while the Bedouins rely mainly on government jobs and assistance from the state.
Culture and Identity - The Bedouins see themselves as the bearers of the original Jordanian identity, while the Palestinians are identified with their national struggle for Palestine. Many of the Palestinians still hold a strong Palestinian identity and do not feel fully belonging to the Jordanian state.
The Concerns of the King of Jordan
Abdullah II, the current king, faces significant challenges related to balancing between the different ethnic groups. He has several key concerns:
Political Threat from Within - The Palestinians constitute a demographic majority, and if they demand appropriate political representation, this could undermine the Hashemite rule.
Foreign Relations - Jordan is a close ally of the West, but it is also committed to maintaining good relations with the Palestinians and the Arab world. Political pressure from Israel, the Palestinian Authority and the Gulf states makes it difficult to manage a balanced policy.
Economy and Instability - A weak economy and high unemployment could cause the Palestinians to demand reforms, which could undermine the current regime.
Fear of Outbreak of Violence - Jordan has experienced conflicts in the past, such as "Black September" in 1970, in which King Hussein fought the PLO and expelled it from the country. Fear of another outbreak of violence remains relevant.
Summary
Jordan is a country with complex challenges related to its multi-ethnic nature. The conflict between the Bedouins and the Palestinians continues to shape the political and social character of the country. The Jordanian leadership must navigate carefully between the different groups to maintain stability, but its concerns stem from fear of demographic and political changes that could undermine its control over time.